Markets Anticipated a Done Deal

As Americans prepare for fireworks on the 4th of July, investors should be watching for a very different kind of fireworks: the end of the 90-day tariff pause July 8th.

Markets have largely looked the other way—but the aftershocks could ripple through trade, inflation, and the global order.

What the End of the 90-Day Pause Means

Back in April, the initial tariff announcement triggered a sharp selloff in U.S. equities, a spike in credit spreads, a surge in the VIX, and rising yields on both the 10- and 20-year Treasuries, all clear signs of rising stress and uncertainty.

The 90-day pause provided a reprieve. But now, it's almost over.

What could Follow?

1. Trade Frictions Reignite

• Tariffs resume on key supply chains from consumer goods to batteries and semiconductors.

• Retaliatory measures from foreign governments may follow.

2. Inflation Pressures Rise

• Higher import costs will likely feed into goods inflation amid already stagnating growth.

• Companies may pass on higher costs, particularly in durable goods and tech.

3. Geopolitical Tensions Escalate

• The administration is weighing additional tariffs on both allies and rivals that risk undermining global trust and economic cooperation.

• With rising Middle East tensions, geopolitical stress will grow, particularly if critical shipping lanes are disrupted.

What We're Watching at Iron Valley:

Credit spreads and equity volatility—early warning signs of repricing Inflation expectations—especially in goods, freight, and retail margins Retail flows and sentiment—will the melt-up hold if input costs rise?

Takeaways

There may be fireworks on the 4th...but the real volatility could come in the weeks that follow.

Markets are not pricing in these frictions, and complacency is high. This may create risk and opportunity for disciplined investors.

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Iron Valley Investments is a registered investment adviser in the State of Pennsylvania. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. A copy of Iron Valley Investments current written disclosure statement discussing Iron Valley Investments business operations, services, and fees is available at the SEC’s investment adviser public information website – www.adviserinfo.sec.gov or from Iron Valley Investments upon written request.